May 1st 2008: From The Economist print edition
A YEAR is a short time to achieve much in politics, but Nicolas Sarkozy, who was elected president of France 12 months ago, led the world to expect quick results. He set ambitious goals for how fast he would put France back to work. Writing before the election, he said that economic reforms should be enacted all at once, not sequentially; and that most of them should be pushed through in the first year, so that their benefits would come through before he had to face voters again.
Judged by his own standards, Mr Sarkozy's first year has been disappointing. After winning a strong mandate for change and a big majority in parliament, he started at the Elysée with characteristic fizz. But after a few symbolic battles, it all went flat. His reform agenda lost its focus, his fondness for compromise began to look like weakness, his highly publicised alliance with (and later marriage to) Carla Bruni became a huge distraction—and his popularity slumped.
The story of the past year looks better abroad than it does at home. Mr Sarkozy promised to restore France to a central role in Europe and to mend its broken fences with America. Although his relationship with Germany's Angela Merkel has often been testy, he played a crucial part in helping her to resurrect the dead European Union constitution in the guise of the new Lisbon treaty. He has big plans for France's six-month stint in the EU presidency, which begins on July 1st, notably to press for a more potent European defence policy—though hopes that he might promote reform of the notorious common agricultural policy are fading (see article).
Across the Atlantic, France's image has been transformed from the bad old days of Mr Sarkozy's predecessor, Jacques Chirac. The new president has won flattering comments both for his decision to dispatch an extra battalion to Afghanistan and for his determination to overturn the legacy of another right-wing predecessor, Charles de Gaulle, by returning France to NATO's integrated military command. He has talked tough over Iran and been friendlier to Israel. And he has dropped Mr Chirac's kid-glove treatment of Russia and China. His foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, a socialist who co-founded the charity Médecins Sans Frontières, has added a human-rights edge to a foreign policy too often blunted by commercial concerns.
Yet it is what happens at home that matters most to France's voters. They picked Mr Sarkozy as their president because they realised that France needed a break with its past (in his word, a rupture). During the quarter-century of Presidents Mitterrand and Chirac, economic growth was mostly slower than Europe's average, unemployment (especially among the young) was consistently higher, public spending grew to over half of French GDP and the national debt rose faster than in any other big European country. Attempts at reform were stymied by trade unions and other vested interests, usually following the hallowed French tradition of taking to the streets.
Mr Sarkozy brought in some early reforms, including to universities and special pension regimes for public-sector workers. But as he acknowledged on television recently, he also made mistakes, and his reforms lost momentum (see article). Now he has embarked on a new round of changes, starting with the “economic modernisation” measures introduced this week by his finance minister, Christine Lagarde. The avowed aim is to increase competition and encourage entrepreneurship. Perhaps a fresh start will mean that Mr Sarkozy belatedly delivers the rupture that he once promised. But there are three reasons to doubt it.
The first is his loss of popularity. The polls released in the run-up to the anniversary were damning. He is the most unpopular first-year president in the history of the Fifth Republic, and his time in office so far is widely deemed to have been wasted. Presidential popularity matters, for in the French system an emasculated parliament has usually counted for less than the power of the street. If Mr Sarkozy sticks, as he must, to his more controversial reforms—to ports, schools, the labour market or the length of service needed for pensions, say—he is likely to have to face down strikes. Hostility towards him, which has increased not because of his reforms but thanks to his turbulent private life, will make that harder.
The second reason for concern is the economic outlook. So far Europe's economies have proved surprisingly resilient in the face of the credit crunch and an American recession. But the latest European Commission forecasts suggest growth is slowing sharply. The commission is also uttering dire threats about the resultant rise in France's budget deficit, so Mr Sarkozy will have little room for fiscal measures to sugar the pill of his more unpalatable reforms.
A skilful politician might exploit a slowing economy to give his reforms new wind, pointing out that hard times and a rising cost of living for ordinary folk strengthen the case for change. This is what Britain's Margaret Thatcher said in the early 1980s, when she insisted that the lady was not for turning. But nobody doubted the liberalising, free-market direction in which she wanted to push Britain, even if it took longer to get there than some now recall. This is not true of Mr Sarkozy—and here is the third reason for doubt.
The French president embodies a contradictory economic philosophy. In preaching reform and openly admiring the Anglo-American system, he seems to embrace liberalisation and more competition. But at the same time, he speaks loudly about protecting companies and jobs, and about the value of national champions. He may talk about intervention more often than he practises it, but his message is hardly likely to persuade France's hard-pressed (and cynical) voters of the merits of free markets.
One year on, in short, Mr Sarkozy has delivered less than he promised. There is little time for him to make up lost ground. Success is not impossible. But another bad year and he risks being written off as little better than Mr Chirac.
Mis en ligne le 12/05/2008 par Pierre Ratcliffe. Contact: (pratclif@free.fr) sites web http://paysdefayence.blogspot.com et http://pratclif.com