Professional
futurologists generally limit their predictions to relatively
specific, and short term trends, such as ageing of the population,
impact of biotechnology, or "cocooning". Until recently, the wider
picture was discussed by academics who got their inspiration from
the theories proposed by philosophers and ideologues, such as Marx,
Marcuse or Hegel. However, the failure of such theories to produce
good predictions has brought about a remarkable change in the
intellectual climate. Academics have become aware of the deep
uncertainty and complexity of present-day society. Many of them have
concluded that it is inherently futile to try and build universal
theories, which would explain everything. They have lost their
belief in progress, in the
idea that evolution advances
in a single and unambiguous direction. The
rather fuzzy cluster of ideas that accompany this movement is called
"postmodernism".
Postmodernism defines itself in contrast to modernism.
Originally, the term comes from architecture, where modern
architecture denotes the familiar glass, steel and concrete
buildings with their straight, rectangular, geometric shapes. This
led in the 1960's to a reaction by younger architects, who included
different decorative elements inspired by earlier periods in their
design. This eclectic mixture of styles was called "postmodern
architecture". From there the term "postmodern" quickly spread to
art, where it denoted a departure from the radicalism and
abstraction of the old avant-garde, replacing them by a fusion of
different popular and traditional elements, like Warhol's Pop Art or
rock music incorporating African and oriental motives. The most
important impact of postmodernism was in philosophy, where it was
heralded as a new stage in the history of ideas.
In history, the start of "modernity" is usually taken to be the
18th century period of Enlightenment. During that period, a belief
in rationality, progress and science spread through the intellectual
establishment, preparing the grounds for the industrial revolution.
According to the ideology of modernity, rational thought is the key
to discovering the truth about the world and ourself. Such true
knowledge will emancipate all individuals, freeing them from the
shackles of ignorance, superstition and dogmatism. Since there is
only one true picture of the world (see reflection-correspondence
theory), there can be only one way to progress: by gradually
filling in more and more elements of this picture. The more elements
are known, the better science will be able to predict and control nature, and
the more the individual will be liberated from the vagaries of fate.
Such a simple, deterministic view of historical progress does not
fit in well with the complexity and confusion of the 20th century.
Atrocities like Hiroshima or the Holocaust paint a very different
picture of the effects of scientific advances. Where is the progress
in killing thousands of people in a few minutes? Does it mean
killing more people in less time? Questions like these have brought
postmodern thinkers to reject the project of modernity and its
belief in rationality and progress. They argue that the idea that
there is one true representation of the world leads to intolerance
and even violence, since it implies the suppression of everyone who
disagrees with this picture. Too often, the supposedly superior
Western world view has been used to justify the oppression of women,
non Western cultures, and colonized peoples.
Instead, the postmodernists see knowledge as a set of
perspectives, where different people have different views, without
anyone being "right" or "wrong" (this relativity of knowledge can in
part be motivated by epistemological
constructivism). When considering culture, they see a plurality
of views, concepts, theories, styles, movements, which are
competing, supporting each other or simply existing side-by-side,
without any of them being better or worse than the others. They
emphasize fragmentations, discontinuities and chaos, rather than the
order, coherence and simplicity characterizing the modernist
philosophy.
When we look at the development of science, the movement towards
fragmentation is unmistakable. As more and more concepts, theories
and models are developed it becomes impossible for any one scientist
to keep informed about all of them. Researchers are forced to focus
on smaller and smaller domains, becoming ever more specialized. This
makes it more and more difficult for scientists from different
domains to communicate. Even when they use the same words, such as
"time" or "space" the meanings of these terms will be different in
different theories (e.g. classical mechanics and relativity theory).
Thomas Kuhn introduced the term "incommensurability" for this
impossibility to translate the ideas of one theory into the concepts
of another one.
The growing number of incommensurable theories negates the belief
in scientific progress as the gradual completion of a true picture
of the world. If such a picture would exist, the different theories
would function as the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, fitting together
and gradually filling more and more of the empty space until the
complete picture emerges. But incommensurable theories simply don't
fit. They look like fragments, but they cannot be integrated into a
whole. It is as if you are trying to reconstruct an ancient clay pot
by puzzling together shards that in fact belong to half a dozen
different pots. The more science grows, the more fragments are
created, and the more difficult it becomes to build a unified
picture, even within the same discipline.
The same fragmentation can be seen in culture at large. Because
of the media and the increased possibilities for travel, people come
into contact with a much larger array of cultures, religions,
ideologies, styles and fashions. The present ideal of pluralism
means the peaceful co-existence of different cultures. But since no
culture perfectly fits the complexity of present society, people
will tend to pick out those pieces they find personally most
appealing. For example, a person may combine Christian church
services with Buddhist meditation techniques and a view of the
universe inspired by the Big Bang theory. The growing trends towards
pluralism and multiculturalism are reinforced by secularization:
people are less and less dependent for their values and beliefs on
traditional churches. Though religious feelings as such don't
necessarily diminish, the authority of religious leaders and
religious institutions continues to decrease. Few catholics still
take the views of the Pope on contraception or sex outside marriage
seriously. They rather follow those guidelines they feel like
following and ignore the rest.
It is as if society presents us with a supermarket full of the
most diverse ideas, beliefs, attitudes, codes, guidelines and rules
of behavior. We just go shopping along the racks, picking one thing
here, another one there, until the cart is full. The things we bring
home may each look quite attractive, but they have little in common,
and certainly don't make any coherent whole. The supermarket of
culture may provide many thrills, but it does not leave us with a
feeling of satisfaction. In the end, we don't know what we should
believe or not.
According to postmodern thinkers, it has to be that way. They
reject the idea that there could exist an integrated world view. There
are no basic principles or foundations on which to build an
encompassing picture of the universe. There is no universal language
that would allow scientists from different disciplines to discuss
their achievements and reach consensus. There is no unique story,
telling us how the world and the different things, plants, animals
and people in it were created, and how humanity is progressing from
primitive tribes to an advanced technological society. Postmodernity
has been defined as "the end of the great narratives". Neither the
accounts of the Book Genesis, nor the ancient Greek or Indian myths
about the origin of the world, nor the theories of the Big Bang and
of evolution have any absolute value.
Though not everyone will agree with such radical conclusions, our
present age undeniably shows fragmentation and an increasing
awareness of the relativity of beliefs and values. This state
of affairs defines the "postmodern condition". It contributes to the
general anxiety,
stress and confusion that many people nowadays experience. Principia
Cybernetica's attempt to build a unified world view
and system of
values, which leaves place to integrate all the different ideas
and approaches, while rejecting the idea that there can be one, true picture of the
world, is one approach to remedy this problem.