Table A2: Commodity Prices and Price Forecast in
Constant 2000 Dollars |
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Actual |
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Forecast |
Commodity |
Unit |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
2010 |
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2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
Energy |
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Coal,
Australia |
$/mt |
27.0 |
49.5 |
38.5 |
26.3 |
82.1 |
|
98.2 |
92.4 |
83.6 |
78.8 |
74.1 |
69.4 |
70.1 |
70.8 |
71.6 |
72.3 |
Crude
oil, average |
$/bbl |
4.2 |
45.5 |
22.2 |
28.2 |
65.5 |
|
82.7 |
81.2 |
79.4 |
77.5 |
75.8 |
74.0 |
72.3 |
70.7 |
69.1 |
68.3 |
Natural
gas, Europe |
$/mmbtu |
1.5 |
5.2 |
2.7 |
3.9 |
6.9 |
|
8.1 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
7.8 |
7.7 |
7.5 |
7.4 |
7.3 |
7.2 |
7.1 |
Natural
gas, US |
$/mmbtu |
0.6 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
|
3.8 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
LNG,
Japan |
$/mmbtu |
n.a. |
7.0 |
3.5 |
4.7 |
9.0 |
|
10.0 |
9.9 |
9.7 |
9.4 |
9.2 |
9.0 |
8.9 |
8.8 |
8.6 |
8.5 |
Non-Energy
Commodities |
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Agriculture |
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Food |
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Beverages |
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Cocoa |
¢/kg |
234 |
321 |
123 |
91 |
260 |
|
256 |
229 |
211 |
201 |
192 |
187 |
183 |
178 |
174 |
170 |
Coffee,
arabica |
¢/kg |
397 |
427 |
192 |
192 |
358 |
|
384 |
352 |
335 |
307 |
288 |
277 |
267 |
257 |
247 |
238 |
Coffee,
robusta |
¢/kg |
316 |
400 |
115 |
91 |
144 |
|
171 |
158 |
150 |
145 |
139 |
137 |
135 |
132 |
130 |
128 |
Tea, auctions (3) average |
¢/kg |
289 |
205 |
200 |
188 |
239 |
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242 |
247 |
241 |
236 |
231 |
227 |
222 |
217 |
213 |
208 |
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Fats
and oils |
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Coconut
oil |
$/mt |
1 376 |
831 |
327 |
450 |
932 |
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1 281 |
880 |
836 |
788 |
741 |
725 |
709 |
693 |
678 |
663 |
Groundnut
oil |
$/mt |
1 311 |
1 059 |
936 |
714 |
1 164 |
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1 281 |
1 233 |
1 215 |
1 183 |
1 155 |
1 127 |
1 099 |
1 072 |
1 046 |
1 020 |
Palm
oil |
$/mt |
901 |
720 |
282 |
310 |
747 |
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897 |
792 |
748 |
710 |
697 |
678 |
660 |
642 |
625 |
608 |
Soybean
meal |
$/mt |
355 |
324 |
195 |
189 |
314 |
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342 |
308 |
291 |
272 |
269 |
267 |
265 |
263 |
261 |
259 |
Soybean
oil |
$/mt |
992 |
737 |
435 |
338 |
833 |
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939 |
792 |
762 |
749 |
741 |
728 |
716 |
704 |
692 |
680 |
Soybeans |
$/mt |
405 |
365 |
240 |
212 |
373 |
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427 |
396 |
352 |
346 |
340 |
336 |
331 |
327 |
323 |
319 |
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Grains |
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Barley |
$/mt |
n.a. |
96 |
78 |
77 |
131 |
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151 |
144 |
137 |
133 |
134 |
134 |
135 |
135 |
135 |
135 |
Maize |
$/mt |
202 |
154 |
106 |
89 |
154 |
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179 |
167 |
158 |
150 |
150 |
149 |
148 |
147 |
146 |
145 |
Rice,
Thailand, 5% |
$/mt |
438 |
506 |
263 |
202 |
405 |
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427 |
423 |
418 |
412 |
410 |
404 |
399 |
393 |
388 |
383 |
Wheat,
US, HRW |
$/mt |
190 |
213 |
132 |
114 |
185 |
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213 |
198 |
176 |
173 |
170 |
168 |
167 |
165 |
163 |
162 |
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Other
food |
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Bananas,
US |
$/mt |
575 |
465 |
526 |
424 |
720 |
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769 |
748 |
704 |
675 |
654 |
647 |
640 |
634 |
627 |
621 |
Meat,
beef |
¢/kg |
452 |
340 |
249 |
193 |
278 |
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350 |
277 |
255 |
254 |
253 |
253 |
254 |
254 |
255 |
255 |
Meat,
chicken |
¢/kg |
n.a. |
85 |
105 |
131 |
157 |
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164 |
171 |
173 |
174 |
173 |
172 |
172 |
171 |
171 |
170 |
Oranges |
$/mt |
582 |
493 |
516 |
363 |
857 |
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777 |
801 |
801 |
797 |
793 |
788 |
782 |
776 |
771 |
765 |
Shrimp |
¢/kg |
n.a. |
1 420 |
1 039 |
1 515 |
833 |
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1 059 |
1 059 |
1 028 |
993 |
959 |
958 |
958 |
957 |
957 |
956 |
Sugar,
world |
¢/kg |
28.5 |
77.9 |
26.9 |
18.0 |
38.9 |
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42.7 |
35.2 |
31.7 |
30.7 |
29.6 |
29.8 |
30.0 |
30.2 |
30.4 |
30.6 |
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Agricultural
raw materials |
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Timber |
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Logs,
Cameroon |
$/cum |
149 |
310 |
334 |
275 |
355 |
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444 |
449 |
440 |
429 |
418 |
425 |
431 |
437 |
444 |
451 |
Logs,
Malaysia |
$/cum |
149 |
241 |
172 |
190 |
231 |
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320 |
299 |
283 |
266 |
261 |
265 |
269 |
273 |
277 |
281 |
Sawnwood,
Malaysia |
$/cum |
608 |
489 |
518 |
595 |
703 |
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867 |
858 |
835 |
809 |
793 |
804 |
816 |
827 |
838 |
850 |
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Other
raw materials |
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Cotton |
¢/kg |
234 |
254 |
177 |
130 |
189 |
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256 |
220 |
176 |
158 |
148 |
146 |
143 |
141 |
138 |
136 |
Rubber,
Asia |
¢/kg |
141 |
176 |
84 |
67 |
303 |
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367 |
264 |
158 |
219 |
209 |
205 |
200 |
196 |
191 |
187 |
Tobacco |
$/mt |
3 727 |
2 806 |
3 297 |
2 976 |
3 570 |
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3 587 |
3 594 |
3 494 |
3 379 |
3 269 |
3 208 |
3 148 |
3 090 |
3 032 |
2 976 |
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Fertilizers |
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DAP |
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$/mt |
187 |
274 |
167 |
154 |
415 |
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470 |
423 |
396 |
377 |
370 |
368 |
365 |
362 |
360 |
357 |
Phosphate
rock |
$/mt |
38 |
58 |
39 |
44 |
102 |
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128 |
128 |
123 |
114 |
105 |
102 |
100 |
98 |
96 |
94 |
Pottasium
chloride |
$/mt |
109 |
143 |
95 |
123 |
275 |
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299 |
264 |
247 |
241 |
235 |
231 |
226 |
221 |
217 |
213 |
TSP |
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$/mt |
147 |
222 |
128 |
138 |
317 |
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342 |
335 |
308 |
302 |
296 |
291 |
286 |
282 |
277 |
272 |
Urea |
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$/mt |
63 |
237 |
116 |
101 |
239 |
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282 |
247 |
238 |
228 |
218 |
215 |
212 |
209 |
207 |
204 |
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Metals
and Minerals |
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Aluminum |
$/mt |
2 128 |
2 188 |
1 593 |
1 549 |
1 802 |
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2 114 |
2 201 |
2 223 |
2 234 |
2 245 |
2 255 |
2 265 |
2 276 |
2 286 |
2 296 |
Copper |
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$/mt |
4 904 |
2 690 |
2 586 |
1 813 |
6 248 |
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8 113 |
7 924 |
7 043 |
6 132 |
5 230 |
4 770 |
4 790 |
4 809 |
4 828 |
4 846 |
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$/lb |
2.22 |
1.22 |
1.17 |
0.82 |
2.83 |
# |
3.68 |
3.59 |
3.19 |
2.78 |
2.37 |
2.16 |
2.17 |
2.18 |
2.19 |
2.20 |
Gold |
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$/toz |
125 |
749 |
373 |
279 |
1 016 |
|
1 153 |
1 145 |
1 056 |
964 |
872 |
781 |
798 |
816 |
833 |
850 |
Iron
ore |
|
¢/dmtu |
34.1 |
34.6 |
31.6 |
28.8 |
121.0 |
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136.6 |
132.1 |
114.5 |
96.4 |
78.4 |
69.4 |
71.2 |
73.0 |
74.8 |
76.5 |
Lead |
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¢/kg |
105 |
112 |
79 |
45 |
178 |
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213 |
225 |
216 |
197 |
179 |
169 |
170 |
172 |
173 |
174 |
Nickel |
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$/mt |
9 860 |
8 037 |
8 614 |
8 638 |
18 084 |
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20 496 |
19 369 |
17 608 |
16 644 |
15 690 |
15 178 |
15 211 |
15 242 |
15 273 |
15 303 |
Silver |
|
c/toz |
609 |
2 544 |
468 |
500 |
1 675 |
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2 348 |
2 201 |
1 981 |
1 752 |
1 525 |
1 301 |
1 316 |
1 331 |
1 346 |
1 360 |
Tin |
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¢/kg |
1 273 |
2 068 |
591 |
544 |
1 692 |
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2 391 |
2 641 |
2 421 |
2 190 |
1 961 |
1 735 |
1 748 |
1 760 |
1 773 |
1 785 |
Zinc |
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¢/kg |
102 |
94 |
147 |
113 |
179 |
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192 |
220 |
211 |
193 |
174 |
165 |
166 |
167 |
169 |
170 |
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n.a.
= Not available. |
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Note: Projections as of March 23, 2011. |
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Source: World Bank, Economic Policy and Prospects Group. |
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