Table A2:  Commodity Prices and Price Forecast in Constant 2000 Dollars              
Actual Forecast
Commodity Unit 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010   2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Energy
Coal, Australia $/mt 27.0 49.5 38.5 26.3 82.1 98.2 92.4 83.6 78.8 74.1 69.4 70.1 70.8 71.6 72.3
Crude oil, average $/bbl 4.2 45.5 22.2 28.2 65.5 82.7 81.2 79.4 77.5 75.8 74.0 72.3 70.7 69.1 68.3
Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 1.5 5.2 2.7 3.9 6.9 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1
Natural gas, US $/mmbtu 0.6 2.0 1.7 4.3 3.6 3.8 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2
LNG, Japan $/mmbtu n.a. 7.0 3.5 4.7 9.0 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.5
Non-Energy Commodities
Agriculture
Food
Beverages
Cocoa ¢/kg 234 321 123 91 260 256 229 211 201 192 187 183 178 174 170
Coffee, arabica ¢/kg 397 427 192 192 358 384 352 335 307 288 277 267 257 247 238
Coffee, robusta ¢/kg 316 400 115 91 144 171 158 150 145 139 137 135 132 130 128
Tea, auctions (3) average  ¢/kg 289 205 200 188 239 242 247 241 236 231 227 222 217 213 208
Fats and oils
Coconut oil $/mt 1 376 831 327 450 932 1 281 880 836 788 741 725 709 693 678 663
Groundnut oil $/mt 1 311 1 059 936 714 1 164 1 281 1 233 1 215 1 183 1 155 1 127 1 099 1 072 1 046 1 020
Palm oil $/mt 901 720 282 310 747 897 792 748 710 697 678 660 642 625 608
Soybean meal $/mt 355 324 195 189 314 342 308 291 272 269 267 265 263 261 259
Soybean oil $/mt 992 737 435 338 833 939 792 762 749 741 728 716 704 692 680
Soybeans $/mt 405 365 240 212 373 427 396 352 346 340 336 331 327 323 319
Grains
Barley $/mt n.a. 96 78 77 131 151 144 137 133 134 134 135 135 135 135
Maize $/mt 202 154 106 89 154 179 167 158 150 150 149 148 147 146 145
Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 438 506 263 202 405 427 423 418 412 410 404 399 393 388 383
Wheat, US, HRW $/mt 190 213 132 114 185 213 198 176 173 170 168 167 165 163 162
Other food
Bananas, US $/mt 575 465 526 424 720 769 748 704 675 654 647 640 634 627 621
Meat, beef ¢/kg 452 340 249 193 278 350 277 255 254 253 253 254 254 255 255
Meat, chicken ¢/kg n.a. 85 105 131 157 164 171 173 174 173 172 172 171 171 170
Oranges $/mt 582 493 516 363 857 777 801 801 797 793 788 782 776 771 765
Shrimp ¢/kg n.a. 1 420 1 039 1 515 833 1 059 1 059 1 028 993 959 958 958 957 957 956
Sugar, world ¢/kg 28.5 77.9 26.9 18.0 38.9 42.7 35.2 31.7 30.7 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.6
Agricultural raw materials
Timber
Logs, Cameroon $/cum 149 310 334 275 355 444 449 440 429 418 425 431 437 444 451
Logs, Malaysia $/cum 149 241 172 190 231 320 299 283 266 261 265 269 273 277 281
Sawnwood, Malaysia $/cum 608 489 518 595 703 867 858 835 809 793 804 816 827 838 850
Other raw materials
Cotton ¢/kg 234 254 177 130 189 256 220 176 158 148 146 143 141 138 136
Rubber, Asia ¢/kg 141 176 84 67 303 367 264 158 219 209 205 200 196 191 187
Tobacco $/mt 3 727 2 806 3 297 2 976 3 570 3 587 3 594 3 494 3 379 3 269 3 208 3 148 3 090 3 032 2 976
Fertilizers
DAP $/mt 187 274 167 154 415 470 423 396 377 370 368 365 362 360 357
Phosphate rock $/mt 38 58 39 44 102 128 128 123 114 105 102 100 98 96 94
Pottasium chloride $/mt 109 143 95 123 275 299 264 247 241 235 231 226 221 217 213
TSP $/mt 147 222 128 138 317 342 335 308 302 296 291 286 282 277 272
Urea $/mt 63 237 116 101 239 282 247 238 228 218 215 212 209 207 204
Metals and Minerals
Aluminum  $/mt 2 128 2 188 1 593 1 549 1 802 2 114 2 201 2 223 2 234 2 245 2 255 2 265 2 276 2 286 2 296
Copper $/mt 4 904 2 690 2 586 1 813 6 248 8 113 7 924 7 043 6 132 5 230 4 770 4 790 4 809 4 828 4 846
$/lb       2.22       1.22       1.17       0.82       2.83 #       3.68       3.59       3.19       2.78       2.37       2.16       2.17       2.18       2.19       2.20
Gold $/toz 125 749 373 279 1 016 1 153 1 145 1 056 964 872 781 798 816 833 850
Iron ore  ¢/dmtu 34.1 34.6 31.6 28.8 121.0 136.6 132.1 114.5 96.4 78.4 69.4 71.2 73.0 74.8 76.5
Lead ¢/kg 105 112 79 45 178 213 225 216 197 179 169 170 172 173 174
Nickel $/mt 9 860 8 037 8 614 8 638 18 084 20 496 19 369 17 608 16 644 15 690 15 178 15 211 15 242 15 273 15 303
Silver c/toz 609 2 544 468 500 1 675 2 348 2 201 1 981 1 752 1 525 1 301 1 316 1 331 1 346 1 360
Tin ¢/kg 1 273 2 068 591 544 1 692 2 391 2 641 2 421 2 190 1 961 1 735 1 748 1 760 1 773 1 785
Zinc ¢/kg 102 94 147 113 179 192 220 211 193 174 165 166 167 169 170
                                     
n.a. = Not available.
Note:  Projections as of March 23, 2011.
Source:  World Bank, Economic Policy and  Prospects Group.