| Table A3. Weighted Indices of Commodity Prices and Inflation, 2000=100 | |||||||||||||||||
| Actual | Projection a/ | ||||||||||||||||
| 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||
| Indices based on prices in current US dollars | |||||||||||||||||
| Energy b/ | 5.6 | 124.3 | 81.3 | 100.0 | 271.2 | 328.7 | 314.0 | 305.9 | 300.4 | 294.9 | 289.5 | 285.3 | 281.2 | 277.2 | 276.2 | ||
| Non-energy commodities c/ | 53.3 | 143.5 | 118.6 | 100.0 | 266.5 | 302.7 | 273.3 | 246.9 | 234.7 | 220.2 | 213.2 | 213.3 | 213.5 | 213.7 | 214.0 | ||
| Agriculture | 54.8 | 157.8 | 116.4 | 100.0 | 231.3 | 254.6 | 219.3 | 197.6 | 197.5 | 193.8 | 192.4 | 191.1 | 189.8 | 188.6 | 187.4 | ||
| Beverages | 66.5 | 221.2 | 120.3 | 100.0 | 253.8 | 254.1 | 226.0 | 212.5 | 201.9 | 193.1 | 188.8 | 184.6 | 180.5 | 176.5 | 172.7 | ||
| Food | 58.8 | 161.8 | 118.9 | 100.0 | 224.1 | 243.4 | 213.9 | 201.4 | 195.8 | 194.1 | 192.9 | 191.7 | 190.5 | 189.4 | 188.3 | ||
| Fats and oils | 68.4 | 158.7 | 108.0 | 100.0 | 244.4 | 274.4 | 235.5 | 220.3 | 212.2 | 209.8 | 207.0 | 204.3 | 201.6 | 198.9 | 196.3 | ||
| Grains | 59.2 | 161.0 | 124.7 | 100.0 | 215.8 | 235.3 | 216.9 | 205.6 | 200.1 | 200.0 | 199.0 | 198.1 | 197.1 | 196.2 | 195.3 | ||
| Other food | 45.8 | 166.5 | 128.0 | 100.0 | 204.9 | 209.8 | 182.8 | 172.6 | 170.4 | 168.2 | 168.8 | 169.5 | 170.1 | 170.7 | 171.4 | ||
| Raw materials | 39.3 | 115.7 | 108.2 | 100.0 | 237.5 | 282.4 | 229.0 | 180.9 | 199.2 | 193.3 | 193.0 | 192.8 | 192.7 | 192.6 | 192.6 | ||
| Timber | 28.0 | 74.6 | 90.4 | 100.0 | 143.5 | 176.6 | 167.3 | 161.7 | 156.3 | 154.1 | 157.0 | 160.0 | 163.1 | 166.2 | 169.4 | ||
| Other Raw Materials | 51.7 | 160.6 | 127.6 | 100.0 | 340.3 | 398.0 | 296.5 | 202.0 | 246.1 | 236.2 | 232.4 | 228.7 | 225.0 | 221.4 | 217.9 | ||
| Fertilizers | 23.6 | 143.9 | 101.2 | 100.0 | 280.0 | 313.2 | 279.4 | 265.4 | 255.9 | 246.3 | 243.4 | 240.5 | 237.6 | 234.7 | 231.9 | ||
| Metals and minerals d/ | 53.4 | 114.1 | 125.2 | 100.0 | 337.2 | 400.0 | 383.3 | 345.8 | 308.5 | 271.3 | 252.4 | 255.9 | 259.4 | 263.0 | 266.5 | ||
| Base Metals e/ | 57.8 | 117.9 | 128.1 | 100.0 | 297.8 | 363.8 | 351.3 | 321.2 | 291.5 | 261.7 | 246.4 | 248.8 | 251.1 | 253.4 | 255.8 | ||
| Indices based on prices in constant 2000 US dollars f/ | |||||||||||||||||
| Energy b/ | 19.3 | 153.2 | 79.0 | 100.0 | 224.9 | 280.7 | 276.4 | 269.4 | 263.1 | 257.0 | 251.1 | 246.2 | 241.5 | 236.8 | 234.9 | ||
| Non-energy commodities c/ | 184.5 | 176.9 | 115.3 | 100.0 | 221.0 | 258.5 | 240.6 | 217.4 | 205.6 | 191.9 | 184.9 | 184.1 | 183.3 | 182.6 | 181.9 | ||
| Agriculture | 190.0 | 194.5 | 113.1 | 100.0 | 191.8 | 217.5 | 193.1 | 174.0 | 173.0 | 168.9 | 166.9 | 164.9 | 163.0 | 161.1 | 159.3 | ||
| Beverages | 230.4 | 272.7 | 116.9 | 100.0 | 210.4 | 217.0 | 199.0 | 187.1 | 176.8 | 168.3 | 163.8 | 159.3 | 155.0 | 150.9 | 146.8 | ||
| Food | 203.7 | 199.5 | 115.5 | 100.0 | 185.8 | 207.8 | 188.4 | 177.3 | 171.6 | 169.2 | 167.3 | 165.5 | 163.6 | 161.8 | 160.1 | ||
| Fats and oils | 236.9 | 195.7 | 105.0 | 100.0 | 202.7 | 234.3 | 207.4 | 194.0 | 185.9 | 182.9 | 179.5 | 176.3 | 173.1 | 170.0 | 166.9 | ||
| Grains | 205.1 | 198.6 | 121.1 | 100.0 | 178.9 | 200.9 | 191.0 | 181.0 | 175.3 | 174.3 | 172.6 | 171.0 | 169.3 | 167.6 | 166.0 | ||
| Other food | 158.7 | 205.3 | 124.4 | 100.0 | 169.9 | 179.2 | 160.9 | 152.0 | 149.3 | 146.6 | 146.4 | 146.2 | 146.1 | 145.9 | 145.7 | ||
| Raw materials | 136.1 | 142.7 | 105.1 | 100.0 | 196.9 | 241.1 | 201.6 | 159.3 | 174.5 | 168.5 | 167.4 | 166.4 | 165.5 | 164.6 | 163.7 | ||
| Timber | 97.0 | 92.0 | 87.9 | 100.0 | 119.0 | 150.8 | 147.3 | 142.3 | 136.9 | 134.3 | 136.2 | 138.1 | 140.1 | 142.0 | 144.0 | ||
| Other Raw Materials | 178.9 | 198.0 | 124.0 | 100.0 | 282.2 | 339.9 | 261.0 | 177.8 | 215.6 | 205.9 | 201.6 | 197.4 | 193.2 | 189.2 | 185.2 | ||
| Fertilizers | 81.6 | 177.4 | 98.4 | 100.0 | 232.2 | 267.5 | 246.0 | 233.7 | 224.2 | 214.7 | 211.1 | 207.5 | 204.0 | 200.6 | 197.2 | ||
| Metals and minerals d/ | 184.9 | 140.7 | 121.7 | 100.0 | 279.6 | 341.6 | 337.4 | 304.5 | 270.3 | 236.5 | 218.9 | 220.8 | 222.8 | 224.7 | 226.6 | ||
| Base Metals e/ | 200.3 | 145.4 | 124.5 | 100.0 | 246.9 | 310.7 | 309.2 | 282.8 | 255.3 | 228.1 | 213.7 | 214.7 | 215.6 | 216.5 | 217.5 | ||
| Inflation indices, 2000=100 g/ | |||||||||||||||||
| MUV index h/ | 28.9 | 81.1 | 102.9 | 100.0 | 120.6 | 117.1 | 113.6 | 113.6 | 114.2 | 114.7 | 115.3 | 115.9 | 116.5 | 117.0 | 117.6 | ||
| % change per annum | 10.9 | 2.4 | -0.3 | 1.9 | -2.9 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |||
| US GDP deflator | 27.4 | 53.9 | 81.4 | 100.0 | 124.7 | 126.6 | 129.0 | 132.0 | 135.0 | 137.8 | 140.8 | 144.0 | 147.4 | 150.8 | 154.3 | ||
| % change per annum | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||
| a/ Commodity price projections as of March 23, 2011. | |||||||||||||||||
| b/ The World Bank energy index is comprised of crude oil 84.6 percent, natural gas 10.8 and coal 4.7. | |||||||||||||||||
| c/ The primary commodity price indices are computed based on 2002-04 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income | |||||||||||||||||
| economies, rebased to 2000=100. Weights for the sub-group indices expressed as ratios to the non-energy index are as follows | |||||||||||||||||
| in percent: agriculture 64.8, fertilizers 3.6, metals and minerals 31.6; beverages 8.4, food 40.0, raw materials 16.5; fats and oils 16.5, | |||||||||||||||||
| grains 11.2, other food 12.4; timber 8.6 and other raw mterials 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| d/ Base metals plus iron ore. | |||||||||||||||||
| e/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. | |||||||||||||||||
| f/ Computed from unrounded data and deflated by the MUV index. | |||||||||||||||||
| g/ Inflation indices for 2009-2020 are projections as of November 8, 2010. Growth rates for years 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 refer to | |||||||||||||||||
| compound annual rate of change between adjacent end-point years; all others are annual growth rates from the previous year. | |||||||||||||||||
| h/ Unit value index of global manufacture exports in US dollar terms. | |||||||||||||||||
| Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group. Historical US GDP deflator: US Department of Commerce. | |||||||||||||||||
| April 25, 2011 | |||||||||||||||||