Here are gathered in chronological sequence the most important events in the history of climate change science. (For a narrative see the Introduction: summary history.) This list of milestones includes major influences external to the science itself. Following it is a list of other external influences.

1800-1870
Level of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in the atmosphere, as later measured in ancient ice, is about 290 ppm (parts per million).

First Industrial Revolution. Coal, railroads, and land clearing speed up greenhouse gas emission, while better agriculture and sanitation speed up population growth.

1896
Arrhenius publishes first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2.=>Simple models

1897
Chamberlin produces a model for global carbon exchange including feedbacks.=>Simple models

1870-1910
Second Industrial Revolution. Fertilizers and other chemicals, electricity, and public health further accelerate growth.

1914-1918
World War I; governments learn to mobilize and control industrial societies.

1920-1925
Opening of Texas and Persian Gulf oil fields inaugurates era of cheap energy.

1930s
Global warming trend since late 19th century reported.=>Modern temp's

Milankovitch proposes orbital changes as the cause of ice ages.=>Climate cycles

1938
Callendar argues that CO2 greenhouse global warming is underway, reviving interest in the question.=>CO2 greenhouse

1939-1945
World War II. Grand strategy is largely driven by a struggle to control oil fields.

1945
U.S. Office of Naval Research begins generous funding of many fields of science, some of which happen to be useful for understanding climate change.=>Government

1956
Ewing and Donn offer a feedback model for quick ice age onset.=>Simple models

Phillips produces a somewhat realistic computer model of the global atmosphere.=>Models (GCMs)

Plass calculates that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will have a significant effect on the radiation balance.=>Radiation math

1957
Launch of Soviet Sputnik satellite. Cold War concerns support 1957-58 International Geophysical Year, bringing new funding and coordination to climate studies.=>International

Revelle finds that CO2 produced by humans will not be readily absorbed by the oceans.=>CO2 greenhouse

1958
Telescope studies show a greenhouse effect raises temperature of the atmosphere of Venus far above the boiling point of water.=>Venus & Mars

1960
Downturn of global temperatures since the early 1940s is reported. =>Modern temp's

Keeling accurately measures CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere and detects an annual rise.=>CO2 greenhouse The level is 315 ppm.

1962
Cuban Missile Crisis, peak of the Cold War.

1963
Calculations suggest that feedback with water vapor could make the climate acutely sensitive to changes in CO2 level.=>Radiation math

1965
Boulder meeting on causes of climate change, in which Lorenz and others point out the chaotic nature of climate system and the possibility of sudden shifts.=>Chaos theory

1966
Emiliani's analysis of deep-sea cores shows the timing of ice ages was set by small orbital shifts, suggesting that the climate system is sensitive to small changes.=>Climate cycles

1967
International Global Atmospheric Research Program established, mainly to gather data for better short-range weather prediction, but including climate.=>International

Manabe and Wetherald make a convincing calculation that doubling CO2 would raise world temperatures a couple of degrees.=>Radiation math

1968
Studies suggest a possibility of collapse of Antarctic ice sheets, which would raise sea levels catastrophically.=>Sea flooding

1969
Astronauts walk on the Moon, and people perceive the Earth as a fragile whole.=>Public opinion

Budyko and Sellers present models of catastrophic ice-albedo feedbacks.=>Simple models

Nimbus III satellite begins to provide comprehensive global atmospheric temperature measurements.=>Government

1970
First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation. =>Public opinion

Creation of U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the world's leading funder of climate research.=>Government

Aerosols from human activity are shown to be increasing swiftly. Bryson claims they are causing global cooling.=>Aerosols

1971
SMIC conference of leading scientists reports a danger of rapid and serious global change caused by humans, calls for an organized research effort.=>International

Mariner 9 spacecraft finds a great dust storm warming the atmosphere of Mars, plus indications of a radically different climate in the past.=>Venus & Mars

1972
Ice cores and other evidence show big climate shifts in the past between relatively stable modes in the space of a thousand years or so, especially around 11,000 years ago.=>Rapid change

1973
Oil embargo and price rise bring first "energy crisis".=>Government

1974
Serious droughts and other unusual weather since 1972, plus warnings by scientists and journalists, raise public concern about climate change, perhaps a new ice age. =>Public opinion

1975
Concern about environmental effects of airplanes leads to investigations of trace gases in the stratosphere and discovery of danger to ozone layer.=>Other gases

Manabe and collaborators produce complex but plausible computer models which show a temperature rise of several degrees for doubled CO2=>Models (GCMs)

1976
Studies show that CFCs (1975)and methane and ozone (1976) can make a serious contribution to the greenhouse effect.=>Other gases

Eddy shows that there were prolonged periods without sunspots in past centuries, corresponding to cold periods.=>Solar variation

1977
Scientific opinion, conveyed to the public by journalists, tends to converge on rapid global warming as the biggest climate risk.=>Public opinion

1978
Attempts to coordinate climate research in U.S. end with an inadequate National Climate Program Act, accompanied by rapid but temporary growth in funding.=>Government

1979
Second oil "energy crisis." Strengthened environmental movement encourages renewable energy sources, inhibits nuclear energy growth.=>Public opinion

U.S. National Academy of Sciences report finds it highly credible that doubling CO2 will bring 1.5-4.5°C global warming.=>Models (GCMs)

World Climate Research Programme launched to coordinate international research.=>International

Election of Reagan brings backlash against environmental movement. Political conservatism is linked to skepticism about global warming.=>Government

1981
IBM Personal Computer introduced. Advanced economies are increasingly delinked from energy.

Hansen and others show that sulfate aerosols can significantly cool the climate, raising confidence in models showing future greenhouse warming. =>Aerosols

Some scientists predict greenhouse warming “signal” should be visible by about the year 2000. =>Modern temp's

1982
Greenland ice cores reveal drastic temperature oscillations in the space of a century in the distant past.=>Rapid change

Strong global warming since mid-1970s is reported, with 1981 the warmest year on record.=>Modern temp's

1983
Reports from U.S. National Academy of Sciences and Environmental Protection Agency spark conflict, as greenhouse warming becomes prominent in mainstream politics.=>Government

1985
Villach conference declares consensus among experts that some global warming seems inevitable, calls on governments to consider international agreements to restrict emissions. =>International

Antarctic ice cores show that CO2 and temperature went up and down together through past ice ages. =>CO2

Broecker speculates that a reorganization of North Atlantic Ocean circulation can bring swift and radical climate change.=>The oceans

1987
Montreal Protocol of the Vienna Convention imposes international restrictions on emission of ozone-destroying gases.=>International

1988
News media coverage of global warming leaps upward following record heat and droughts plus testimony by Hansen.=>Public opinion

Toronto conference calls for strict, specific limits on greenhouse gas emissions.=>International

Ice-core and biology studies confirm living ecosystems make climate feedback by way of methane, which could accelerate global warming.=>Other gases

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is established.=>International

Level of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches 350 ppm

The period since 1988 is too recent to identify historical milestones.

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This is a reference list of miscellaneous significant developments that don't fit into any of the other essays: scientific-technical matters that arose altogether independently of the scientific fields covered, and are not included above in the list of major "milestones," but that did have a significant influence on climate change studies.

Before the 1950s there were practically no global warming studies as such, and all the important discoveries (the ice ages, the infrared absorption of carbon dioxide, etc.) were effectively "external."

1950s:
Research on military applications of radar and infrared radiation promotes advances in radiative transfer theory and measurements. =>Radiation math — Studies conducted largely for military applications give accurate values of infrared absorption by gases.=>CO2 greenhouse — Nuclear physicists and chemists develop Carbon-14 analysis, useful for dating ancient climate changes,=>Carbon dates for detecting carbon from fossil fuels in the atmosphere, and for measuring the rate of ocean turnover.=>CO2 greenhouse — Development of digital computers affects many fields including the calculation of radiation transfer in the atmosphere,=>Radiation math and makes it possible to model weather processes.=>Models (GCMs) — Geological studies of polar wandering help provoke Ewing-Donn model of ice ages.=>Simple models — Improvements in infrared instrumentation (mainly for industrial processes) allow very precise measurements of atmospheric CO2.=>CO2 greenhouse

1960s:
Analysis of automobile and airplane exhaust pollution brings recognition of complex chemical and light interactions in the atmosphere, especially involving ozone=>Other gases — Research on urban air pollution, and related industrial and military applications,improves knowledge of aerosols and atmospheric turbidity.=>Aerosols — Studies of fallout from nuclear weapons tests give improved picture of circulation of aerosols in the stratosphere.=>Aerosols— Studies of fallout and pesticides foster worries that human technology can bring world-wide disaster.=>Public opinion — Research on small-scale phenomena in various fields of geophysics (cloud formation, soil moisture, etc.) provides information useful for setting crucial parameters in global computer models.=>Models (GCMs) — Studies of rice paddies and other biological and agricultural entities show emission of large quantities of methane. =>Other gases

1970s:
Neutrino experiments and new astrophysical theories suggest that the Sun could be a variable star.=>Solar variation — Models of glacier flow, developed by generations of glaciologists, reveal a possibly catastrophic instability in the Antarctic ice sheet.=>Sea flooding — Fallout from nuclear weapons tests, slowly penetrating the oceans, reveals deep circulation patterns.=>The oceans — Studies of ancient reversals of the Earth's magnetic field, measured in continental rocks and the ocean floor, provide a time-marker for climate changes.=>Climate cycles — Ocean geologists find huge deposits of methane-bearing ices in the world’s seabeds.=>Other gases — Continued rapid improvement of digital computers and software makes possible fairly realistic models of complex systems like climate.=>Models (GCMs) — Nimbus-III and other satellites, designed chiefly for weather prediction, provide global data essential for climate modelling.=>Models (GCMs)

After about 1980, efforts that would be relevent to global warming were generally undertaken with an awareness of potential connections.

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copyright© 2003 Spencer Weart & American Institute of Physics